Will Rogers, the famous cowboy comedian from almost a century ago, used to say, “I’m a member of no organized political party; I’m a Democrat.”
Times and politics have changed, but one thing hasn’t: Democrats have long been a coalition of various groups who did not always like each other very much, but hated Republicans more. That includes minorities, labor unions, and environmental and civil liberties activists.
Things were even more contradictory before the Civil Rights movement. Both Southern segregationists and northern black voters supported Democrats, while white liberals were often Republican. Southern whites are normally Republican now. Maine and Vermont, once the two most Republican states in the union, are now two of the most Democratic.
When all or most of the various Democratic groups are united, they usually win elections. When they aren’t, they lose. Of course, whenever you think you have politics figured out, people tend to fool you. A dozen years ago I was sure I would never see a black president in my lifetime. Two years ago, I was sure Donald Trump would lose badly.
Now, I’m sure that nothing is sure. I do know that politics, perhaps especially in Michigan, have often been volatile and subject to change almost as often as the weather. Democratic Governor James Blanchard won a huge landslide in 1986, beating Republican Bill Lucas by more than two to one. Four years later, Blanchard ran for another term, and lost.
Richard Nixon won one of the greatest landslides in history in 1972, winning 49 out of the 50 states. But four years after that, Democrats won the presidency.
Those were years, however, when our major parties weren’t nearly as ideological as they are now. Republican Governor William Milliken was more liberal than some Democrats, and developed an amazing “odd-couple” friendship and alliance with Coleman Young.
But those days are over, at least for now. Today, politics too often seems to be more about getting your voters to the polls than it is about persuading people to change their mind.
That’s not always the case. Thousands of blue-collar Michigan white voters who supported Bill Clinton and even Barack Obama voted for Donald Trump.
More often, when Democratic voters feel that Democratic candidates aren’t addressing their issues, they tend to not bother to vote.
That’s a big part of why Hillary Clinton lost Michigan. That’s what Democrats are worried about in Michigan this year, too. After eight years of total Republican control and the Flint water crisis, Democrats should be able to sweep the statewide offices and make big gains in Congress and in the legislature. But will that happen?
Gretchen Whitmer, the most likely nominee for governor, is still not well known in Detroit. There are concerns as to whether men, especially older men, will vote for a woman for attorney general who is married to another woman, and who said — largely as a joke – that the way to eliminate sexual harassment was to vote for the candidate who didn’t have a penis.
Eric Sevareid once said that the heart of the Republican Party was small-town Main Street; Democrats’ spiritual home was a huge diverse crowd in Madison Square Garden.
This year, how diverse and enthusiastic that crowd is will determine who wins.
(Editor’s Note: This commentary was first broadcast on Superstation 910 AM)
