DETROIT – So you think the much-awaited “blue wave” fell short of expectations?
Nationally, that might appear to be the case, especially when you look at how Republicans actually gained seats in the U.S. Senate.
Democrats failed to win the governorship in neighboring Ohio, for example, where their impressive and progressive candidate, Richard Cordray, lost to Mike DeWine, a shopworn former U.S. Senator in his 70s.
But in Michigan, it really was a blue day that left Democrats feeling anything but sad. In fact, Democrats scored their biggest sweep in the state in decades:
* Gretchen Whitmer, a former minority leader of the state senate, took back the governorship for the Democrats by easily defeating Bill Schuette, the state attorney general, by an impressive nine points and nearly 400,000 votes.
* For the first time since the early 1990s, Democrats will control all the major statewide offices, as Jocelyn Benson easily was elected Secretary of State and Dana Nessel won the race for attorney general.
Not only is this the first time that the “big three” top office holders are women, it was notable in two other ways. Ms. Whitmer’s selection of African-American Garlin Gilchrist as lieutenant governor meant that, for the first time ever, none of the top four office holders are white men. (Sob) Additionally, Dana Nessel is not only Michigan’s the first openly gay statewide official; she has a wife and two sons.
* U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow won a fourth term over GOP newcomer John James, a decorated African-American veteran of Operation Desert Freedom, but by her smallest margin since she was first elected to the Senate.
Democrats also gained two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which will give them a 7-7 tie in the delegation.
Elissa Slotkin, a former acting assistant secretary of defense, beat two-term incumbent congressman Mike Bishop, and Haley Stevens, chief of staff for President Obama’s auto industry rescue team, won a seat held by a retiring Republican.
Democrats also gained five seats in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, but failed to win control of either, in large part because GOP gerrymandering has made that next to impossible.
They did, however, knock off an incumbent state Supreme Court justice, Kurtis Wilder, with a little-known attorney named Megan Cavanagh, the first time that has happened in a decade.
They won a majority on the Oakland County commission, for the first time since at least the 1970s.
And beyond that, in what may prove to be the most politically significant development of all, Michigan voters opted to end partisan gerrymandering forever, amending the state constitution to take redistricting away from the legislature.
Starting after the next census, both congressional and legislative districts will be drawn by an independent commission of four Republicans, four Democrats and five independents.
This happened after a true grass-roots and bipartisan citizens’ committee calling themselves Voters Not Politicians gathered signatures, fought court battles and got this on the ballot.
Republicans, who were in favor of leaving redistricting to the legislature (naturally, since they control it), flooded the airwaves with often misleading ads – but the amendment passed anyway, with an overwhelming 61 percent of the vote.
Another amendment that makes it easier to register to vote and allows anyone to vote an absentee ballot passed even more easily.
Michigan voters also decided to make it legal to use recreational marijuana (still illegal under federal law) and adopted an amendment that sets standards for its use and distribution.
Why did Democrats do so much better in Michigan than in most places? To be sure, Donald Trump is less popular in Michigan than in many states; his narrow victory in 2016 was his smallest in the nation.
But to an extent, this blue wave wasn’t about President Trump, but about a natural rhythm in Michigan politics and local failure.
Since the 1960s, Michigan voters have always replaced a retiring governor of one party with one from the other one.
In this case, Republicans had controlled all branches of Michigan government since 2011 – and had become largely unpopular. Gov. Rick Snyder won high marks for guiding Detroit through a cushioned bankruptcy, and for making sure that the Gordie Howe International Bridge over the Detroit River would happen.
But he also angered voters by taxing their pensions; failed to persuade the legislature to adequately fix the roads, and worst of all, badly mishandled the water crisis in Flint, by appointing emergency managers who failed to prevent the water from being poisoned.
After that, it took weeks after the facts were known before the governor finally fired two of those in charge of the Flint debacle.
To add to the GOP’s misery, Ricky and Billie have openly despised each other for years, and the governor refused to endorse his fellow Republican to replace him.
So as of January, Michigan will once again have divided government – but one in which Democrats – for now – hold the top positions, and most of the power. But will that last?
Will they be able to hold the seats in Congress and the legislature they won this week? Time, the economy, and what they do with their mandate over the next year or so, may tell.
Keep Your Eye on John James: Many rolled their eyes when John James, a gung-ho former Apache helicopter without a day of experience in politics, decided to run for the U.S. Senate against Debbie Stabenow. He was on course to be beaten badly in the August primary by Sandy Pensler, a Grosse Pointe millionaire.
But Trump then jumped in to rescue James with a full-throated endorsement and he promptly and easily put Pensler away.
Debbie Stabenow has been the Eveready bunny of Michigan politics. Republicans have been sneering at her since 1974, when she ran her first race for the Ingham County commission – and beat an incumbent. She’s never lost to a Republican since, except when she was pushed into being Hopeless Howard Wolpe’s running mate when he ran for governor in 1994.
Nobody thought he had a chance – and he didn’t. He lost indeed, but did much better than I thought he would, losing by less than seven points. That was Stabenow’s closest senate election since her first; this year, she ended up running behind Gretchen Whitmer!
Six years ago, Stabenow put a well-known congressman away by more than 20 points. If James, who is only 37, did that well in a hopeless struggle, his Republican colleagues would do well to groom him for a race he maybe could win. Expect to see him run, again.
I’m just not sure for what.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
