You may find it hard to believe – and the odds are against it – but next year’s presidential election could easily end in a tie. That’s in the Electoral College, of course, which, as most of us now realize, is the body that actually elects a President.
Three years ago, Donald Trump won states with a total of 304 electoral votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. As we all know, Clinton got more popular votes, but she got too many of them in too few states, and Trump won enough states to add up to his magic number.
But what about next year? Here’s a scenario to think about. Most surveys indicate Trump has lost support. Two of his closest victories came in Michigan and Wisconsin, states that prior to last time, had voted Democratic for President since the 1980s.
Let’s say the Democratic nominee wins those two states and adds Arizona. That’s not that far-fetched a scenario. Arizona has been becoming more Democratic; Hillary Clinton almost won it, and Democrats gained a seat in the U.S. Senate there last year.
If those were the only states that switched, it would mean that both candidates would end up with 269 electoral votes –a perfect tie. And then it would really start to get interesting.
The electoral votes would be counted by the old vice-president with the newly elected House of Representatives on January 3. If indeed it was a tie, then the task of picking the new president would go to the House of Representatives.
The new House, that is, the one the voters will choose next year. Right now, Democrats control the House 235 to 197, which might lead you to think that if the new House looks like the old, the Democratic presidential nominee would be chosen.
However, you would be wrong.
In a case like that, representatives wouldn’t vote individually, but as a unit, with each state having one vote. Any candidate would need a majority of 26 to win. Right now, although they have fewer members, Republicans have a majority in 26 state delegations.
Democrats have only 22, and Michigan and Pennsylvania are exactly tied. Assuming every member stayed true to her or his party, Trump would win with 26 votes.
But what if in next year’s election, Democrats gain one seat in the House in both Florida and Wisconsin? That means Democrats would have 23 delegations, Republicans 24.
Three states would be tied, and if everybody stayed where they were, no candidate would get a majority. Repeated ballots would be taken, but they could remain stuck.
However, the vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senate, with every Senator having a single vote. Right now, you’d assume they would elect Mike Pence, assuming he runs for a second term, and Republicans keep their present 53 to 47 Senate majority.
But you can’t assume that. It will be the new U.S. Senate that would select the next vice-president in case of an Electoral College tie – and Democrats are thought likely to make gains. So — imagine a nightmare scenario where the Electoral College is tied, the House of Representatives deadlocks, and the next Senate is divided 50-50.
What happens then? Who would be inaugurated President?
Were that to happen, the job would go, at noon of January 20, 2021, to the Speaker of the House, who is quite likely to still be … Nancy Pelosi.
Yes, Nancy Pelosi, in the event of a deadlock, could be our next president. And if that happens, just remember you read it here first.
