Suddenly, thanks to a stunning federal court decision, politics – and government—in Michigan may be about to dramatically and drastically change.
Yesterday, in my most recent essay, “Does Divided Government Work,” I noted that even though Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s main campaign theme was “fix the damn roads,” that might not happen, thanks to Republican opposition in the legislature.
People clearly want the roads fixed and Republicans out of power. Democrats swept all the statewide offices last fall, mostly by large margins, and a majority of voters also voted for Democratic candidates for both the Michigan House and Senate.
But thanks to what independent observers have long regarded as outrageous partisan gerrymandering, Republicans got substantially more legislative seats.
Citizens also have come to hate gerrymandering, and thanks to the brilliant grass-roots campaign led by 29-year-old Katie Fahey, they overwhelmingly voted to outlaw it last November.
New districts will now be drawn by a panel of independent citizens. But that won’t happen for two years, and won’t take effect till the 2022 elections. Two days ago, it seemed sadly likely the Republicans in the legislature might be able to prevent any real progress on the roads.
Despite voters’ desires, many GOP lawmakers’ deepest loyalty is to a fanatic refusal to raise taxes, even for something urgently necessary for the public welfare.
The governor has offered a well-reasoned proposal that would raise taxes in three stages by a total of by 45 cents a gallon. Experts agree that at least $2 billion a year in new money is needed to restore the roads to a point where they hurt Michigan’s ability to be economically competitive, and where drivers don’t lose thousands in damage to their cars.
However, Republicans are refusing to consider that. They say they will unveil a roads plan this summer, but hint they are basically unwilling to raise taxes.
But then yesterday, a panel of three federal judges unanimously agreed that Michigan’s gerrymandering was not only outrageous, but illegal. They ordered that the boundaries in nine congressional districts, 15 state house districts and 10 state senate districts be redrawn – now.
Special elections for all these districts would follow next year, including the senate districts, which normally wouldn’t be on the ballot till 2022. But more than these districts would be affected; many others bordering them would have to be redrawn too.
The federal judges, including one Republican, minced no words. They gave the legislature till August 1 to draw new boundaries, and if they fail or the judges don’t like them, the court would draw their own districts and order those maps followed.
Michigan Republicans immediately vowed to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, in the hope that the court’s increasingly right-wing majority would overturn the ruling. The Supremes are set to rule on two separate gerrymandering cases in other states in June, and how they rule may provide an indication of whether they will overturn the Michigan decision.
But if the ruling on redrawing the Michigan districts stands, it should not only shake next year’s election up considerably, it should suddenly make a lot of districts more competitive.
Lawmakers might find it harder to ignore voters’ wishes and needs – and it is even possible Democrats could find themselves in control of both houses on Jan. 1, 2021.
This has already been a tumultuous year in Lansing – and things may be about to get much, much more interesting.
