DETROIT — In my last column, I noted that the coming census may be more important than ever for Michigan, because, for the first time, an independent citizens group will use the results to completely redraw legislative and congressional districts.
However, though the census is not until next April 1, I found that a lot of people had more questions. Most of all, they wanted to know if the rumor was true that the census would be entirely online.
The answer is, essentially yes — and that has local officials very worried. “We’ll be 90 percent paperless,” Bridgitte (cq) Wyche McGee, a partnership coordinator with the U.S. Census told a gathering of local officials at the Michigan Municipal League’s annual meeting in Detroit a few weeks ago … and there were audible gasps.
That’s because many older citizens are still not comfortable on the internet – and some are still not online at all.
There will be an alternative, however: Everyone, or at least every household, will get a postcard in the mail from the U.S. Census bureau in March telling them how to get the census website.
But if anyone doesn’t want to do it online, it will also give them a toll-free number they can call and answer the nine census questions.
That does present another challenge – the danger of fraud. “The census bureau will not call you,” said Kurt Metzger, a demographer and a former census official.”
“You can call them, but they won’t call you. If someone calls and says they are from the U.S. Census Bureau, they aren’t.”
U.S. Census officials are confident their population recording site can’t be hacked (famous last words.) There will still be a few million traditional census questionnaires mailed to people who live in areas that essentially lack internet service.
But everyone else has to respond online or by phone. What if you don’t respond? “Then, they send people to try and find you,” Metzger said. Millions of people, in fact, won’t respond.
Some, like the homeless may have no fixed address or a way to get mail. Census officials expect only 80 percent will respond the first time. Metzger, now the mayor of the tiny suburb of Pleasant Ridge, thinks the response rate will be more like 70 percent.
That means thousands of enumerators will be needed to track down those who don’t answer. “Most of those who aren’t counted don’t want to be found,” Metzger said.
Some of these are undocumented people who fear the census will use their information to turn them in to immigration authorities. Others may be people hiding from the law who fear the same thing.
“But they don’t need to worry, because that doesn’t happen,” Metzger said. “The census doesn’t share its data on individuals with anyone, and it won’t be available for 72 years,” or the year 2092.
How important is getting a total count?
Vitally important, for those who have to run local cities and townships, all of which depend on government funding.
Jeff Jenks, a longtime elected commissioner in the small city of Huntington Woods, noted that this is “critical for all communities.
“I believe Huntington Woods lost over $2 million in federal and state funds over the past 10 years, because “snowbirds” reported they lived in Florida and Arizona,” because they were in their winter homes on April 1, 2010, though they really live in Michigan,” he said.
Huntington Woods is an older and somewhat affluent community, but has barely 6,000 people. Larger cities stand to lose a lot more money – which is why a complete count matters.
Richard Strausz, a retired math teacher who lives in suburban Southfield, asked another common question: “If a non-citizen answers the census, are they included in the congressional tally?”
“I can see counting those with green cards, because they can participate in society,” he said. But what about the undocumented?
Again, while their presence may be “illegal,” it is essential to know how many of them there are; they still impact the costs of running any community.
Ironically, after analyzing its data from 2010, the U.S. Census bureau reported that there was a slight over count of older white people, like those living in Huntington Woods, some of whom filled out census forms in both their winter and summer homes.
On the other hand, the census estimated it missed slightly more than two percent of the African-American population, 1.5 percent of Hispanics, and nearly five percent of Native Americans living on reservations. (Those off reservations were, bafflingly, over counted.)
The census bureau hopes that by moving to telephone and online surveys, they can improve their accuracy next year.
The state of Michigan is also putting on a full court press to try to make sure those who spend winters elsewhere are counted as Michigan residents. For beyond money, political power is at stake:
Fifty years ago, Michigan had 19 members of the House of Representatives; Ohio, 24. Now, Michigan is down to 14; Ohio 16, and unless the census finds that both states have more people than now projected, each may lose another seat.
That’s all the more reason to count everyone –and why Michigan is earmarking millions to assist with the census.
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Anyone interested in applying for a temporary job with the U.S. Census Bureau can apply online at www.census.gov.
