DETROIT – Sen. Elizabeth Warren has done remarkably well – so far – in the Democratic primary battle, and has led in some polls in the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
She may, especially if Bernie Sanders falters, win the nomination in Milwaukee next July.
But here’s something you might consider:
Once upon a time, there was a liberal Democratic Senator from Massachusetts who won the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary easily, and then swept to the nomination.
His opponent was a largely unpopular Republican president who had deeply divided the country. Democrats thought they could smell victory. On Election Day, their candidate did sweep the northeast and the Pacific west. But except for a few states around Chicago, he lost everything else — and the presidential election.
His name was John Kerry, and that was 2004.
Once upon another time, there was a Democratic candidate from Massachusetts who made a better-than-expected showing in Iowa, swept New Hampshire, and breezed to the nomination.
By summer, he was 17 points ahead in the polls, and the race looked about over. But then the Republican spin doctors went to work on his record, and his campaign went into a tailspin. In the end, he lost 40 states. His name was Michael Dukakis, and that was 1988.
Now, it is a new century, and one of the front-running candidates for the Democratic nomination is Ms. Warren, another liberal senator from, yes, Massachusetts who is leading in some polls in early key states. Every election is different, of course.
The political landscape isn’t the same as it was in 1988 or even 2004. But it would be hard to blame any Democrat who looks at this and asks themselves – haven’t we seen this show before?
Doesn’t it have an unhappy ending?
This analysis could be faulty. No two campaigns are the same, and most people are still not paying a lot of attention.
To be sure, nobody like Donald Trump has ever been in the White House, and given his negative approval ratings and other obvious weaknesses, an economic downturn could possibly doom his reelection no matter who the Democrats run.
David Brooks, the conservative New York Times columnist, is no fan of Warren’s – but thinks she may win because by that time, the nation will realize they have to get rid of Trump, no matter what.
Incidentally, he also thinks it would be the duty of any thinking American to support her if she and Trump are the nominees.
But a New York Times/Siena College poll released Nov. 5 indicates that nominating Elizabeth Warren could be the biggest gift the Democrats could give President Trump. Their survey showed former Vice President Joe Biden beating Trump in virtually every swing state, except for North Carolina.
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont led the President narrowly in the three states that decided the last election, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But Warren trailed in every swing state except Arizona.
Polls are notoriously unreliable, especially this early in any election cycle, and a Washington Post-ABC News poll the same day showed Warren with a 55 to 40 percent lead over Trump.
But even that poll showed the more moderate Biden doing better. The New York Times survey found that many voters just plain did not like Warren, some because they did not like her “Medicare for all,” health insurance plan; others because they disliked her personality or speaking style.
Some said they felt like she was lecturing them; others, like Elysha Savarese, a 26-year-old Floridian, said “I just don’t feel like she’s a genuine candidate. I find her body language to be very off-putting. She’s very cold … basically a Hillary Clinton clone.”
That may be unfair, and it is clear from Warren rallies that many women and men adore her.
There are also a few older Democrats who note that John F. Kennedy was a Democratic senator from Massachusetts, and he was elected. That is true – but it was also six decades ago.
Kennedy, who was perceived as a middle-of-the-road moderate, could count on states like Louisiana and Arkansas and Georgia that no Democrat – certainly not one on the left – has much if any hope of winning today. Additionally, the playing field is different.
Voting strength and electoral votes have shifted dramatically from the Northeast, which was and is JFK and Warren’s base, to the South and West. New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts had a combined 93 electoral votes in 1960. They have a mere 60 today.
Florida, which President Kennedy, (like Hillary Clinton) narrowly lost, had 10 electoral votes in 1960; it has 29 today. Geography has become less favorable to a Massachusetts Democrat. The day after Paul Tsongas won the 1992 Democratic primary, the legendary Texas Gov. Ann Richards, a often irreverent Democrat, dryly told a friend of mine, “So they want to give us another liberal from Massachusetts, and this one has a lisp.”
Democrats did not, however, nominate Tsongas, but instead chose Bill Clinton, the governor of Arkansas who was perceived as a moderate. That fall, he won.
History does not always repeat itself. But it does, sometimes, provide signposts for the future.
(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
