DETROIT – Two years ago, Michigan Republicans held a solid, 9-5 majority in the state’s delegation to Congress.
They’d held that for years, keeping all their seats even in strong Democratic years. But what a difference two years can make.
Now, Michigan has seven Democrats, six Republicans and one independent in the U.S. House of Representatives. And there’s another national election this year, one that should have a much larger turnout, since it is a presidential year.
Can the GOP gain back the seats they lost? Do they have a chance of ousting freshman Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters?
The answer is … it won’t be easy.
Michigan’s congressional district boundaries were drawn by a Republican legislature in 2011 and designed, or gerrymandered, to produce a permanent 9-5 GOP majority every time.
But times change. Populations shift.
And in Michigan’s affluent Detroit-area suburbs, places that enthusiastically voted for Ronald Reagan and the first George Bush, President Donald Trump and his policies are extremely unpopular.
That was reflected in what happened in 2018. The state’s 11th Congressional District, a collection of well-off suburbs west and northwest of Detroit had voted Republican since its creation.
But two years ago, U.S. Rep. David Trott, a wealthy mortgage attorney who had held the seat for two terms, did not run for reelection. He later said he felt Trump was unfit for office, and he no longer felt comfortable in a Trump-dominated GOP.
Republicans then nominated a political novice, Lena Epstein, a businesswoman who was a fervent Trump loyalist. Democrats nominated 35-year-old Haley Stevens, who had served as chief of staff in President Obama’s task force on the auto industry.
Democrats poured money in, and Stevens pushed a moderate message calling for health care reform and rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure and won, 52 percent to 45 percent.
A similar pattern emerged in Michigan’s 8th district, which includes a bunch of mid-Michigan counties and the city of Lansing.
Elyssa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and U.S. State Department official, took on another two-term GOP incumbent, Mike Bishop, and beat him by a closer 51-47 percent margin. Once again, she stressed moderate themes, and argued that Bishop had voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act without any health care alternative.
Republicans nearly lost another seat when U.S. Rep. Fred Upton of Kalamazoo barely beat an underfunded challenger. Then last July, U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, who represents a Grand Rapids-area district, announced he was leaving the Republican Party and becoming an independent. Amash, who politically is essentially a libertarian, also said the President needs to be removed.
Last month, he voted to impeach him.
So what happens now?
It is too early to know for sure. However, Republicans could conceivably fare even worse in this year’s election. Upton has at times criticized Trump, but voted against impeachment.
That may have enraged both sides in his district. It isn’t yet clear whether Amash will run for reelection to Congress or seek the Libertarian nomination for President. He has hinted, however, that he is more likely to try to keep his House seat.
If he does run as an independent, that could give the seat to the Democrats if the conservative vote splits between Amash and a Republican challenger, probably Peter Meijer of the well-known grocery chain family.
None of the other five GOP-held Michigan districts are seen as being vulnerable, and all five held by Democrats before the 2018 elections are solid, one-party districts.
What’s not known is how much of an effort Republicans will be willing to make — meaning, how much money they would be willing to spend — to try to defeat Haley Stevens or Elyssa Slotkin.
Defeating either would likely cost as much as $15 million. There’s an added complication; the districts all Michigan congressmen now hold will vanish before the 2022 election.
That’s because the U.S. Census results will require new districts to be drawn – and for the first time ever, those lines will be drawn next year by a completely nonpartisan panel. Additionally, the state will lose one seat in Congress, so some incumbent will lose out.
Will Republicans really make a major effort for a seat that, even if they do win, could last only two years?
If you want a clue as to how the political year is unfolding in Michigan, keep your eye on what happens in all these seats.
As for the U.S. Senate race …
Two years ago, John James, an African-American businessman who served as an Apache pilot in Iraq, was the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate against Debbie Stabenow, who was running for a fourth term. He lost, but made the race closer than expected.
Now, the 38-year-old James is running against Michigan’s other first-term U.S. Senator, Democrat Gary Peters. Could this be a case of the second time being a charm?
Perhaps … but the odds are heavily against it. Peters, a 61-year-old veteran himself, is generally popular, hard-working, and has a formidable campaign war chest. Also – the last time a Democratic U.S. Senator was defeated for reelection in Michigan was 1952.
Republicans have also lost 14 out of the last 15 U.S. Senate races in the state. Some in the party are said to be quietly attempting to persuade James to run for Congress against Stevens instead.
He might want to think about that.
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(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
