DETROIT – Two things seem certain about Michigan’s March 10 presidential primary: First, more people will vote absentee than ever before. Second, many who vote too early may end up wasting a vote on a candidate no longer in the race.
And there are also two things that are completely uncertain: One, naturally, is who will win, on the Democratic side, at least.
But there’s also a real question about whether the system will work now that there are bound to be far more absentee ballots than ever before. Though it hasn’t gotten much attention, officials and election experts are very concerned about this.
Here’s why: Until last year, Michigan, which unlike Ohio doesn’t allow early voting, made it difficult to get an absentee ballot. They were legally limited to senior citizens, those who expected to be were in the hospital or in jail (!), or who expected to be out of town.
But all that changed in November 2018, when voters amended the state constitution to say anyone who wanted an absentee ballot could get one – no questions asked.
In last year’s local elections, cities reported two and three times as many absentee ballots as they were used to. Few people voted in those elections, and there were no major problems. But more than two million votes are likely to be cast on March 10, and it is possible that more than half will be absentee.
That’s a problem primarily because counting them is far more time-consuming than processing other votes.
Clerks have to open the envelopes, sometimes flatten out the paper ballots, and run them through tabulators. And they aren’t allowed to do any of that before the polls close.
Chris Thomas, the state’s recently retired longtime director of elections, told the Detroit Free Press, “I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t know the results Tuesday night.”
That doesn’t mean the state is facing another debacle on the scale of the Democratic caucus in Iowa. But the last thing Democrats or the state of Michigan need is more election problems.
Jocelyn Benson, who was elected Michigan’s secretary of state in 2018, pleaded with the legislature last year for reform.
“Allow (local) clerks to begin counting absentee ballots before Election Day so that they can spend it ensuring … all ballots are accurately counted.” She recommended to the House Elections and Ethics committee that they be allowed to start doing this four days before any election. But no reform happened.
In part, that’s because some lawmakers voiced fears that early results might leak out, possibly affecting those who have yet to vote.
However, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, most states do allow clerks to at least prepare absentee ballots to be counted before Election Day, and some actually count them early. No cases of improperly leaked data have been recorded.
Adding to the complications: Voters can now register to vote for the first time on Election Day and cast a ballot. If many voters actually try to do this, it could also clog an overloaded system.
If serious problems can somehow be avoided in the presidential primary, the situation is likely to get much more of a test in the Nov. 3 general election, when as many as six million votes could be cast.
There are other things to keep in mind about absentee voting as well. Michigan has no party registration and any one can vote in the GOP or Democratic primary – not both.
But you have to request either a Republican or Democratic ballot, and that information is public. You can also ask for a non-partisan ballot, which will list only local issues, if any, voters are being asked to decide, such as an arts millage in the Detroit area.
Some voters already have cast and dropped off or mailed in their absentee ballots for the March 10 primary. They became available as early as the last week of January.
That means that some voters almost certainly have voted, or will vote, for candidates who will have dropped out by March 10.
The Michigan Democratic ballot includes the names of Marianne Williamson, John Delaney, Cory Booker, Joe Sestak and Julian Castro, for example, all of who are already long gone.
In addition to President Trump and William Weld, the Republican ballot lists Joe Walsh and Mark Sanford, who have also suspended their long-shot campaigns.
Others are likely to quit if they don’t do well in upcoming contests, especially Super Tuesday, which is a week before Michigan votes. What if you already voted for one of these?
Guess what: You can change your vote any time before Election Day. Just go to your local city or township clerk, and ask them to throw away your original ballot and ask for a new one.
Personally, I think the best time to vote will be March 4 or 5, after 14 states vote on March 3 and the shape of the contest is likely to be much clearer. Just be sure your ballot, whether you send it by mail or you drop it off in person, reaches the clerk before the polls close at 8 p.m., Tuesday, March 10. If it gets there later, it won’t count.
(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
