**
GRAND RAPIDS, MI – This, some felt, might be a great year to run for President as a Libertarian. Four years ago, the party did far better than ever before. Gary Johnson, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, got nearly 4.5 million votes.
That was four times as many he’d gotten four years before. That was at least partly due to some Republican and independent voters being turned off by Donald Trump, the surprise GOP nominee, and being equally unimpressed by Hillary Clinton.
Now, four years later, the nation is deeply divided, and opinion surveys show Trump has likely alienated many Republicans who had reservations, but voted for him four years ago.
Could this be a year in which a Libertarian nominee could really break through and get enough votes to really establish the party as a major player in national politics?
For a moment there, some felt they had found their ideal candidate in Michigan congressman Justin Amash, who said last month that he was interested in running. And run he did… till Saturday, when he surprised his supporters by dropping out.
What’s really happening here?
Well, for starters, the Libertarians lost the highest-profile candidate they’ve ever fielded when Johnson decided two campaigns were enough, and opted not to run again. That left the party with a range of little-known contenders ranging from the principled and earnest, like Michigan’s Brian Ellison, to the outrageously zany, like Vermin Supreme.
None, however, have ever held elective office.
So that’s why some were excited when Amash declared he was interested in the Libertarian Presidential nomination. Amash, who is 40, made headlines when he first refused to endorse and then repeatedly tangled with President Trump, who he called a “childish bully.” Eventually, he became the first Republican to call for Trump’s impeachment, and then left the party last year.
Suddenly, the party had the possibility of running a national figure again. Could Justin Amash take the Libertarians to new heights by pulling votes from millions of Republicans fed up with Trump?
Could he add to that the votes of independents and Democrats who feel Joe Biden has nothing new to offer, or want a President who, unlike both major party candidates, won’t be deep into their 70s?
The Libertarians were to have had a four-day convention in Austin, Texas this month, and delegates expected a pitched battle from those excited by Amash –- and purists who wanted a dyed-in-the-wool party member, not one more GOP defector.
But the coronavirus epidemic canceled the convention. Instead, delegates will pick their candidate online May 22 – which could have put a late-entering candidate like Amash at a disadvantage.
His nomination, despite national media attention, was never a sure thing. There were those who see him as more opportunist than true libertarian. Those include fellow Grand Rapids resident Bill Gelineau, the Libertarian Party’s nominee for governor in 2018.
“He’s a lousy example of libertarian thinking,” said Gelineau, who ran against Amash for Congress in 2012, and was not impressed when the then-Republican refused to debate him, or to debate other Libertarian candidates in succeeding elections.
Beyond that, however, Gelineau said the key to Libertarian thinking is personal freedom –- the “concept of, ‘you own yourself,’” which means Libertarians should support reproductive freedom of choice, legalized marijuana, and same-sex marriage.
“Libertarians believe government shouldn’t control private behavior. Amash has failed on virtually all of these” issues, he said.
While he acknowledged that the congressman does have some Libertarian principles, Gelineau said, “I think he is a heretic,” and added that he thinks the Libertarians “have had their fill of Republican retreads.” There’s something else, too.
“Trump has proven much more destructive to our institutions than many of us could have imagined. He is a clear and present danger.” Gelineau added “I’ve already decided that my one vote must go to Joe Biden. We don’t have the luxury of another Trump term. We are on the verge of a violent culture war.”
He also doesn’t think any Libertarian will do as well this year as Gary Johnson did in winning 3.3 percent of the vote four years ago.
On that point, Matt Grossmann, one of Michigan’s most respected political scientists and pollsters, agree. Grossmann, the director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research noted that, “after a close election, third party candidates’ share of the vote tends to go down.”
That was certainly true in 2000, when many guilty liberals felt that Ralph Nader had prevented Al Gore from winning that year’s presidential election. Nader’s vote declined from almost 2.9 million that year to 465,610 four years later.
“We already began to see that in the midterms last year,” Grossmann said. In Michigan, for example, the Libertarian candidate for President got 3.6 percent in 2016, while the candidate for governor, Gelineau, managed only 1.3 percent in 2018.
When a president runs for reelection, the result tends to be “mostly a referendum on that president,” he said, and those who turn thumbs down are likely to want a candidate who can win.
The political scientist thinks that regardless of who the Libertarians nominate, their November total is likely to decline “to the one to two percent range,” which, apart from last time, is more than the party’s presidential candidates have ever received.
Amash apparently realized that. “After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year,” he said in bowing out.
Beyond that, however – which major party would be apt to be most hurt by a strong Libertarian showing? Though conventional wisdom holds that Libertarians hurt Republicans and Greens hurt Democrats, Professor Grossmann disagrees.
“I think if you ask them their second choice this year it is most likely to be Biden,” he said. But he doesn’t think either major party should worry very much. He doesn’t think any minor party candidate will get enough votes this year to make much of a difference.
(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
