DETROIT – It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger with a big lead over the incumbent Republican, who has had, to put it mildly, a difficult year.
That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 percent to 38 percent.
Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.
No two races are the same, of course. But if you don’t seem to recall anything about the Dukakis administration, that’s because there wasn’t one. George H.W. Bush won that election, 54 to 46 percent and with a crushing 426 electoral votes.
This year’s election is still nearly four months away, and at this point, such polls are “absolutely worthless,” Dukakis told the Boston Globe four years ago, when most experts and surveys gave Trump essentially no chance of victory.
That doesn’t mean, however, that Trump supporters can breathe a sigh of relief. There are many differences between the two races. George H.W. Bush was not then a polarizing figure — about the worst that was said about him in 1988 was that he was too bland.
Michael Dukakis, although he had breezed to the Democratic nomination, was not well known and had no experience in a national campaign. Following the Democratic convention, he returned to Boston to resume his duties as governor, instead of campaigning.
When the Bush campaign unleashed ferocious and nasty attack ads against the Democratic candidate, Dukakis failed to respond, something he later said was his greatest mistake.
Perhaps more importantly – people essentially felt things were going well in this country in 1988. Unemployment was 5.4 percent, far better than the 13.3 percent it was in May 2020.
President Ronald Reagan was still very popular, and people were especially thrilled that the nuclear tensions of the Cold War finally seemed to be coming to an end.
This year is very different. We have never had a national election during a global pandemic before — but polls show most voters are not happy with how the President has handled the crisis. Incumbents who run for reelection at a time of high unemployment have historically tended to do badly – and the jobless rate has been higher this year than at any time since the Great Depression.
Nor is Joe Biden an unknown quantity, or inexperienced in the ways of national politics. He served six terms in the U.S. Senate, eight years as vice president and this is his third presidential run.
Things are virtually sure to happen between now and November to change this race – things we can’t anticipate or foresee. Biden, who will turn 78 in November, will be the oldest man ever nominated by a major party. Trump, who is 74, is the second-oldest.
Interestingly, one thing that probably won’t make much difference is the vice-presidential selection. Dukakis’ choice in 1988, Texas U.S. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, was applauded as a strong choice. Bush’s choice, Dan Quayle, was widely ridiculed.
Polls showed Bentsen would have won easily, had vice-presidents been elected separately. But they aren’t.
Deeper examination of current polling data also would indicate ominous news for the Republicans. Biden leads by 10 to 11 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the three states that gave Trump the election in 2016. The New York Times has him up by six to nine points in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.
CNN said their survey showed Joe Biden on course to win 368 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed to win. The Times poll indicated the former vice president would get at least 333.
But it really is never over until it is over. Back in 1948, there was unanimous agreement among the nation’s top political writers that President Harry Truman was headed for a crushing defeat. In what may still rank as the oddest election night performance ever, Truman himself deserted his staff and had the Secret Service check him into a bed and breakfast under an assumed name.
Early the next morning, his bodyguards awakened him and had him turn on the radio. The Republican candidate was expected to concede defeat soon, and he would need to come back to respond.
His Secret Service agents said later that Truman expressed little emotion when he learned he had won the greatest upset in history. There were, however, said to be tears in his eyes.
(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.) –
