DETROIT – So what if the pandemic means that most Americans end up voting by mail in November?
Will there be chaos, confusion, and results delayed for days or weeks, as some, including President Donald Trump, have predicted?
Well, if Michigan’s primary last week is any guide, the answer is a resounding … NO. Everything seemed to be remarkably smooth.
Turnout was considerably higher than usual, with the vast majority of voters opting to mail in or drop off an absentee ballot. Counting went a little slower on election night, but not much, and by mid-morning virtually every result was known.
Detroit was late in reporting its returns, but then it almost always is. And while there was a glitch or two, as when a few poll workers didn’t show up and precincts had to open late, there were few who complained about long lines or problems voting, much less fraud.
“Calm, clean and safe,” Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said on Election Day, just before results came rolling in. “Today’s successes underscore just that we are ready for November.”
But local clerks warned that November might not be quite so easy, especially, if as expected, more than twice as many votes are cast and a high proportion of those are absentee. Under current Michigan law, absentee ballots can’t be opened and counted till the polls close at 8 p.m. Allowing them to be counted earlier would greatly speed up the process, but the legislature hasn’t been willing to do that.
To some extent, Michigan had begun preparing for this primary even before the pandemic hit. Two years ago, voters amended the Michigan Constitution to allow anyone to have an absentee ballot who wanted one and to allow same-day voter registration.
Then, when COVID-19 happened, Secretary of State Benson mailed 7.7 million absentee ballot applications to every registered voter on the list. Two million voters asked for absentee ballots.
By the time the polls had closed on Election Day, Aug. 4, nearly 1.6 million ballots had been returned. That’s not only far more than the 484,000 absentees in the primary election four years ago:
Absentee ballots this year outnumbered all the votes cast in the 2016 August primary, when fewer than 1.4 million people voted. This year, the total turnout was more than 2.2 million.
Other interesting takeaways from the primary:
- Two years ago, Rashida Tlaib, now a nationally famous member of the so-called “squad” of four progressive Democratic congresswomen, narrowly won her first primary for Congress almost by accident.
Four prominent black candidates split the African-American vote in the mostly black district, and Tlaib, a Muslim whose family came from Palestine, finished first with only 31 percent.
This year, she had only one opponent in the Democratic primary –Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, who nearly beat her last time. But besides becoming nationally known for her attacks on President Trump, Tlaib had paid close attention to the needs of her district, which is one of the poorest in the nation.
She also raised millions for her campaign, much of it from out-of-town admirers of her politics, and beat Jones almost two to one. No Republican ever has a chance here in November.
- Candidates seen as more left-wing won most other contested Democratic primaries or at least gave moderates a scare. That included the Kalamazoo area, where State Rep. Jon Hoadley, who was endorsed by the entire Democratic establishment for a Congressional nomination, was nearly defeated by a unknown liberal teacher, Jen Richardson, who his campaign outspent 20 to one.
- Trump loyalists, on the other hand, also had a good night. Businesswoman Lisa McClain, who ran endless ads touting her support of the President, beat the previously better-known State Rep. Shane Hernandez, who spent at least $1.5 million on the race, and Doug Slocum, a moderate who refused to run negative ads. She won the congressional nomination in the safely GOP 10th district, in the “thumb.”
In Detroit, furious Democrats first censured, then attempted to defeat State Rep. Karen Whitsett, a fellow Democrat who praised President Trump for promoting the drug Hydroxychloroquine, which they claimed helped cure COVID-19. But she won her primary easily.
- And despite an economy wracked by coronavirus and double-digit unemployment, most millage requests, for schools and parks and other civic improvements, seem to have been approved by voters across Michigan.
What, if anything, does this indicate is likely to happen in November? The primary results don’t reveal much, other than an indication the electorate is as polarized as ever.
Except for this: Two years ago, Democrats gained two seats in Congress, defeating an incumbent Republican in one suburban seat and picking up another long held by the GOP.
This year, there is no indication Republicans are mounting a major effort to win them back; their nominees are little known and, so far, lightly funded. This may be due to the knowledge that all the boundaries will be redrawn next year, after the census results are known, and at least one of those seats will disappear.
But it also may indicate Republicans expect this to be a Democratic year in Michigan, something polls have been showing, and they may fear trying to beat incumbent Democrats this time may be a futile effort.
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(Editor’s Note: A version of this column appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
