DETROIT – So could the polls all be wrong again?
Four years ago, virtually no one thought that Donald Trump was going to win the election, reportedly including the candidate.
But as all the world knows, win he did. Not the popular vote, which he lost by 2.8 million, but by a solid 306-232 in the Electoral College (which fell to 304 after two “faithless” Republican electors voted for John Kasich and Ron Paul.)
So, again — could that happen this time?
Well, of course it could. No matter how far behind any presidential candidate may be, they can always let their daydreams drift back to 1948, when every pollster and political writer in the nation was convinced that President Harry Truman was going to lose.
Headlines were set in type: DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. Most of the speculation was on who Dewey would have in his cabinet.
In an odd twist, Harry Truman disappeared on Election Night, checking into a hotel under an assumed name, only to be awakened in the wee hours by Secret Service agents who told him that he had won.
That was a long time ago. But more recently, Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard was believed to be coasting to a third term victory in 1990. The Detroit News poll the weekend before the election had him ahead 54 percent to 40 percent. But on election night, he lost.
Donald Trump has been trailing badly through much of this campaign, too – but he was behind in 2016, as well. Many of his supporters are convinced he is about to humiliate the pollsters again.
But here are a few reasons why that’s less likely this time:
- Four years ago, many voters clearly wanted a change, and Hillary Clinton was seen as part of the establishment and part of the problem. Trump had never held office, and so couldn’t be blamed for anything that had happened. That’s no longer true.
- Polls failed to predict Trump’s victory – but they weren’t off by very much when it came to the actual popular vote. An average of final nationwide 2016 polls gave Clinton 45.7 percent and Trump 41.8 percent, but indicated Trump was gaining. The actual result? Clinton 48.2; Trump 46.1 percent. Trump won, of course, because he won by tiny margins of less than one percent each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The polls had shown Hillary Clinton ahead in all those states, but by margins between three to five points– generally, within the margin of error. Former Vice-President Joe Biden has been ahead by double-digit margins in all three states during much of the fall.
- Finally –many of history’s great upsets, including the Truman-Dewey and Blanchard-Engler races, happened because a huge number of voters changed their mind in the last few days. In 1980, Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter were essentially tied in the polls before their only debate, which occurred one week before the election. Reagan both inspired people that the nation could do better and allayed fears that he was a warmonger, and what had been a close race became a Reagan landslide.
But in all those cases, nearly everyone voted at the polls on Election Day. Absentee ballots amounted to no more than a few percent of the total. Well, it’s a different world now.
Four years ago, more than 41 percent of the more than 140 million votes were cast before Election Day — either absentee or in states that have early voting — an all-time record.
This time, look for that to dramatically increase, thanks to states like Michigan, which have made absentee voting much easier, and the nationwide pandemic, which has made millions worried about voting in person in a crowded precinct.
Some experts think as much as 70 percent of the vote could be cast before Nov. 3, which would greatly minimize the effect of any late October or beginning of November campaign “surprise.”
Add to that worries about the economy and a general feeling the government had mismanaged the pandemic, and the outlook might not be rosy for anyone now in power.
But it’s also very true that, while the immortal words of Yogi Berra have become a cliche, it really ain’t over until it is over. There are bound to be election night surprises, no matter who wins.
Last year I fully expected some candidate to steal the slogan, “A Clear Vision for 2020.” That evidently didn’t happen. Instead, we got a year we couldn’t see coming, or what might be coming next.
Electoral College Advantage? Most commentators think the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, given that both George W. Bush and Donald Trump won it while losing the popular vote. Maybe. But had 60,000 Ohio voters changed their minds in 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry would have been elected president while losing by almost three million popular votes. Had that happened, you might see both parties united in trying to get rid of this ancient institution.
