AUBURN HILLS, MI – Everybody expected that at least two of Michigan’s current members of Congress would have to run against each other in this year’s August primary.
After all, once again, Michigan lost a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after the last census, where it now has seven Democrats and seven Republicans. And indeed, the new Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission threw two west Michigan Republicans, Fred Upton and Bill Huizenga, into the same district.
But a primary was averted when Upton, who has been in Congress since 1986, decided to retire, perhaps largely because he knew he would face the wrath of Trump supporters for his vote to impeach the former President in January, 2021.
In the Detroit metro area, U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence, a Democrat, decided to retire as well. That should have meant clear sailing for the rest of the delegation.
But then, the unexpected happened. U.S. Rep. Andy Levin, who had represented a district that was two-thirds blue-collar Macomb County and one-third white-collar Oakland, found himself in a new district that was almost entirely Macomb – and which, while a swing district, is thought to have a slight tilt to the GOP.
So he announced he would instead challenge U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, a fellow Democrat, in the new 11th district, all of which is in Oakland County — meaning a battle which is shaping up to be tough, nasty, and brutally expensive for Democratic donors.
Each candidate claims they have the better claim to represent the Oakland County district — and there are arguments supporting both. Each has served two terms, and each has distinct strengths and weaknesses.
One thing only is certain: Voters will choose one of the two in Michigan’s Aug. 2 primary. Another thing is very likely: Whoever wins that race will be going back to Washington next January. Oakland County, which has about 1.2 million people, was once a Republican bastion. It is home to hundreds of thousands of affluent, educated white-collar professionals, who solidly supported Republicans like Richard Nixon and Bill Milliken.
However, many of those people don’t feel comfortable in today’s GOP, and both Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and President Biden carried the county by more than 100,000 votes. But who will Oakland Democrats choose as their representative in Congress?
Andy Levin, who is nearly 62, whose old district included much of the southern part of the new one, has lived in the new district most of his life. He also has a famous name. His uncle, the late Carl Levin, served six terms in the U.S. Senate. Levins have been state and federal judges; his father, Sander, was elected to the legislature in 1964; ran for governor twice and then spent 36 years in the House of Representatives before being succeeded by his son.
Haley Stevens, 39, was also born and grew up in the district, but after a recent marriage moved to Rochester Hills — the one tiny portion of Oakland County folded into the new 10th district based in Macomb. She first gained national attention when she served as chief of staff for President Obama’s automotive task force, and was deeply involved in the restructuring of General Motors and Chrysler. Even some Republicans have praised her manufacturing knowledge; the Chamber of Commerce, which normally backs Republicans, endorsed her in 2020, when she was narrowly reelected.
There is no clear front-runner in the race. While Stevens does not live in the new district, she currently represents more of it – about 42 percent compared to 26 percent for Levin; the rest is in a district now held by the retiring Brenda Lawrence.
Andy Levin is seen as the more “progressive” of the two Democrats, and is likely to get more labor endorsements, in part because he was instrumental in getting the House to vote to allow Congressional staffers to form a union.
But he has also angered many Democrats, who won’t go on the record, but resent his decision to jump districts. “Levin, with his name and track record, probably could have held the 10th,” one said.
“Now, we will probably lose that seat,” to John James, who nearly defeated U.S. Sen. Gary Peters two years ago. Levin’s decision to challenge Haley Stevens also means Democrats and their allies will end up spending millions in a primary battle, money that then may not be available for a general election.
There are also a few other indications that Levin may be in trouble: Despite being lesser-known, Stevens has been consistently raising more money; from January to March, she raised $1.1 million, to $767,268 for Levin. Overall, campaign finance reports showed she had $2.8 million in the bank, to his $1.5 million.
Women may also be a deciding factor. Four years ago, Levin beat a respected female legislator in a Democratic primary, but lost the Oakland County portion of that district.
There is one final intangible: Though Levin is Jewish, he has sponsored legislation to restrict how Israel uses U.S. military aid, which has caused AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, to support Stevens, who is not Jewish.
However this turns out, the specter of two Democratic members of congress beating each other up and spending vast sums to do so is not what their party’s leaders wanted to see, especially in a year that is looking more and more difficult for Democrats.
