How Will Michigan’s Congressional  Races Turn Out?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

MONROE, MI – Democrats won’t admit it — but they have essentially no chance to beat U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, the congressman who has represented southern Michigan since 2010.

That’s not because anything is wrong with the Democratic nominee, Bart Goldberg, a genial, “common-sense” lawyer from New Buffalo.  It’s just that the district is so heavily Republican no Democrat can win there — especially in these polarized times.

Two years ago, Gretchen Driskell, a former legislator and mayor of Saline, in Washtenaw County, spent nearly $2 million to try and win the seat. He spent less, but crushed her, 59 to 41 percent, the third time in a row he’d beaten her.

Since then, the Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission has drawn new boundaries that make the seat even more Republican. According to the respected website FiveThirtyEight.com, the GOP has a 24 percent advantage, which means, other things being equal, that in a two-party matchup, a Republican should win by a 62 percent to 38 percent margin over a Democrat.

Democrats also have no realistic chance to beat incumbent congressman Jack Bergman, who represents Michigan’s sparsely populated Upper Peninsula, and the northern third of the lower one, or U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar on the western part of the state, no matter how good the candidates they run are, or how much they spend.

They have even less chance against Lisa McClain, a freshman Republican who represents a district that covers the “thumb” in the mitten that is lower Michigan.

They might hope to challenge six-term congressman Bill Huizenga with a strong candidate in a big Democratic year; his district only has a nine-point GOP advantage — but this almost certainly isn’t the year.

But Michigan Republicans have their own share of unpleasant truths.  There is no way they can possibly beat U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, who moved after redistricting from a Dearborn-based district to an Ann Arbor-based one.

They may loathe U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a charter member of the “Squad” that conservatives love to hate. But she is in an urban-suburban district that should give her more than 70 percent of the vote. The same is true for State Rep. Shri Thanedar, an eccentric native of India who spent $5 million to win the Democratic nomination in an adjacent district.

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who beat another incumbent member of congress in last month’s Democratic primary, won’t win by that margin, but also has nothing to fear.

In the interest of fairness, I should say that political miracles sometimes do happen, and even if they don’t, we should applaud the men and women who take on so-called hopeless races, campaign and try to keep their opponents accountable. Every race should have alternatives.

But that leaves four races that are close, intense, and may decide who controls the House in 2023 — and beyond.

When this year began, Michigan had 14 members of the U.S. House of Representatives – seven from each party. But once again, the state lost a seat after the last census.

The four battlegrounds are:

The new 10^th district, almost entirely in Macomb County, nationally famous as the symbol of blue-collar voters who switched from Democrats to Republicans with Ronald Reagan.

 According to the analysts, the district has a six-point natural Republican advantage, which is close enough for a strong Democrat to possibly overcome.

Republicans are running John James, an African-American businessman who came close to beating U.S. Sen. Gary Peters two years ago, and made a respectable showing against U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow two years before that.

The GOP is pouring millions into James’ campaign, and he is seen as the favorite.  But Democrats have a chance, for two reasons: They are running Carl Marlinga, who was Macomb County’s highly respected prosecutor for two decades, before becoming a probate and then a circuit judge.

Marlinga has name recognition, and surveys show that he is regarded favorably by most voters. But he has little money. James’ name is known, but he has a problem: He doesn’t live in the county, or anywhere close to it, and has no apparent plans to move. In Macomb, an insular and clannish place, that could matter.

The new Third District, centered on Grand Rapids, currently has freshman U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer, a moderate Republican who narrowly defeated Democrat Hillary Scholten in 2000.  But the new district is more Democratic, and in the GOP primary, Meijer was defeated by John Gibbs, a far-right conspiracy theorist. Privately, many in both parties think this is a seat Republicans have thrown away.

Eighth District:  This Flint-based district has been held by a Democrat named Kildee since 1976 – the late Dale Kildee until 2012, and his nephew Dan ever since.  Usually they have won easily, but the new district is a tossup between the parties.

Dan Kildee is being challenged by Republican Paul Junge, a former TV anchor who ran in a different district and lost narrowly to Elissa Slotkin two years ago.

Finally, the new Lansing-based Seventh District is the most competitive of all. Elissa Slotkin, 46, is a two-term Democrat with an impressive pedigree. The terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 inspired her to join the CIA; she soon rose to be a director of the National Security Council and then an assistant secretary of state. Four years ago, she defeated a lackluster GOP incumbent, and was narrowly reelected in 2020.

Now, however, she is in a district with a slight GOP advantage, and is facing a well-known GOP state senator, Tom Barrett.  You can expect both parties to pour perhaps $10 million each into this race — for a job that lasts two years and pays $174,000 a year.

Do the astronomical sums elections cost today make sense?  You know the answer.  What can be done about that is, of course, the real question.

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