MOUNT CLEMENS, MI — Four years ago, Michigan Republicans found an unexpected charismatic star candidate: John James, an African-American businessman who graduated from West Point, and served with distinction in Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Following two tours of duty in Iraq, he earned an MBA at the University of Michigan and then went to work for the global supply chain management company his father founded.
Four years ago, at 37, he decided to run for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, to challenge incumbent Debbie Stabenow. He won the nomination, thanks both to lackluster competition and a timely endorsement from Donald Trump.
But nobody paid much attention. Stabenow was seen as unbeatable; in her last election, she had defeated a prominent GOP congressman by almost a million votes. John James, however, campaigned hard and energized a lot of people.
He indeed lost — but by less than seven points. Two years later, he challenged Michigan’s other U.S. Senator, freshman Gary Peters. He lost again, but this time, by less than two points, and ran ahead of Trump, who also lost the state that year. Still, James had suffered two statewide losses in two years, something that would be enough to end the careers of most candidates.
But now, he is trying again, and is favored to win. This year, he is the Republican candidate for Congress in the new 10th district, which is mainly largely blue-collar Macomb County, with a small chunk of northern Oakland thrown in.
Analysts say the demographics of the district point to a slight GOP advantage. Much of it has been represented by Democrat Andy Levin, and his father before him. But this year, Levin took on another incumbent in a safe Democratic district, and was annihilated in the August primary. So does that mean James is home free?
Maybe not. Democrats nominated a man who has been known and respected in Macomb nearly as long as James has been alive: Carl Marlinga, who won five terms as prosecutor by landslides, and then was elected to both the county probate and circuit courts.
Despite that success, earlier in his career, Marlinga had failed in a run for Congress and in a primary battle for the U.S. Senate. Now 75, he had planned on retirement and a lot of travel.
But then came Donald Trump, and what Marlinga felt was a real threat to democracy — one he fears will become a much bigger threat if the GOP takes back the U.S. House of Representatives. “I’m a loyal Democrat, but in the past, if Republicans took the house; well, that was sad,” but that’s how politics works.
Now, however, “you saw what they tried January 6 –think of what they could do if they had two years to prepare. We could have all sorts of phony electors, and bizarre theories about legislatures having the ability to decide elections in their state.
“My wife Barb, who wasn’t enthusiastic about my running, said ‘do you really believe your election could determine the Presidency of the United States?’ I told her, yes. There’s a small mathematical chance it could happen, but if I win, I could be the 218th or 219th seat that would allow us to keep control.”
He is quick to add he isn’t running just as a placeholder to stop the “MAGA Republicans.” Marlinga has some well-thought out ideas about how to make the district and state more economically competitive, like making heat pumps for sale in Europe.
“We have to get back to making the products the world wants and being the best in the world at it,” he says.
Right now, most think the odds are against his getting to Washington. Those supporting James have poured millions into his campaign, $2.6 million in one three-month period. Marlinga, in early October, had raised less than $800,000 overall.
The party that controls the White House also traditionally does poorly in midterms, and inflation has made things even harder for the Democrats. But Marlinga has a few things going for him. In Michigan politics, Macomb County has been a world apart, often suspicious of outsiders. And James doesn’t live in, or anywhere near the district; his house is almost 20 miles from where it begins.
He’s never lived there, and hasn’t taken steps to move there. On the other hand, as Senator Stabenow remarked recently, “Marlinga is Macomb,” through and through.
Additionally, Democrats may be helped by the top of their ticket; Michigan Republican candidates for governor, secretary of state and attorney general are expected to lose badly.
Finally, Marlinga is counting on a huge boost from female voters angry at Republicans over the abortion issue.
“Just as the Trump vote was undercounted by pollsters in 2016, I think the women’s vote will be undercounted this year. I honestly think if you take any Democrat on the ballot this year, look at their final poll numbers and add four points,” he said.
Maybe. Political analyst Nate Silver’s 538.com gives Marlinga only one chance in four to win. But he missed the Trump surge too. This race is interesting for wider national reasons as well: If Carl Marlinga wins it probably means Democrats will continue to control the House. If he loses, odds are that they won’t.
What’s ironic is that for more than half a century, Michigan had two black members of Congress, both Democrats and both from Detroit. Now, the only African-American who is favored to be there next year is James, a Republican who has never lived in the city.
And Detroit will be represented by a Muslim Palestinian-American and a native of India. The world really has changed.
