LANSING, MI – Perhaps the most surprising development in Michigan politics this year was U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s surprise January announcement that she wouldn’t seek a fifth term next year.
And possibly the least surprising development was U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s announcement late last month that she would seek the Democratic nomination for the senate seat.
Less than one day after she told supporters in an email that she was thinking about running, the three-term congresswoman announced, telling voters “we need a new generation of leaders that thinks differently, works differently, and never forgets that we are public servants.”
The 46-year-old Slotkin has been viewed as a rising star by Democrats, both in Michigan and nationally, since she defeated a GOP incumbent in 2018 in what was supposed to be a safe Republican district. Prior to that, the former CIA analyst had held important national security posts under both Republican President George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama.
Though she grew up in rural Oakland County, the granddaughter of the man who made Ball Park Franks the national stadium hot dog, she has always said the key event in her life was September 11, 2001, which happened just as she was starting graduate school at Columbia University in New York. After she got her master’s degree, she joined the CIA, specialized in the Middle East, and spent much of the next five years in Iraq (something perhaps especially risky for a Jewish woman) before returning to Washington. There, she rose to become Assistant Secretary of Defense of National Security Affairs, and earned a bipartisan image.
But though she made a career in the highest levels of national security, she has a disarming and folksy charisma. Bill Haney, who hosts a breakfast and lunch group who call themselves “the geezers” invited her to coffee with them a year before she decided to run.
They quickly fell in love with her. “We were struck with what a great listener she was, with her total candor, consistency and honesty,” said Haney, who soon became co-chair of Seniors for Slotkin. “She cares about her constituents personally.”
For example, she still shows up every year to collect and cook maple sap in late winter with Haney’s “geezers,” though redistricting two years ago took them out of her congressional district.
And though she is clearly ambitious, her decision to try for a job with a six-year, rather than a two-year term is also pragmatic. Redistricting after 2020 gave her a new district which leans even more Republican than her old one – a seven-point GOP edge.
She won reelection by more than five points last November, but she had to raise $13 million to do so, and her opponent was probably weakened by an extremely weak statewide Republican ticket.
Winning a statewide race might be easier. As for money — she took in more than $1.2 million in donations the day she announced!
Of course, in politics things can turn on a dime, and there’s still well over a year before Michigan’s Democratic primary, let alone the general election. Normally the rare spectacle of an open senate seat would bring out multiple challengers in each party.
But what is surprising is that, as of now, the Democratic field seems to be clearing for Slotkin.
Other possible contenders, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her fellow three-term congresswoman, Haley Stevens, have taken themselves out of the race. Some Black Democrats were hoping that Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would run, but he also declined.
The one political heavyweight who could give her a tough battle is another rising star, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. But while she hasn’t ruled out a run, Benson said on Meet the Press that “I’m very happy in my current job.”
Many think Benson is gearing up to run instead for governor in 2026, when Whitmer will be term-limited out of office. Still, in politics, you never say never.
There will, of course, be a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Michigan — but their party has an astounding record of futility in senate races. Michigan Republicans have won only one race for the U.S. Senate since 1972, losing the other 15 times.
This year, the party is nearly broke and badly split. The man who was their potentially strongest candidate, former U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer, of the grocery chain fame, lost his Grand Rapids-area seat in Congress in a Republican primary last year after he voted to impeach President Trump because of the attempted Jan. 6 insurrection.
Republicans nominated an ultra-MAGA candidate instead, who lost in a landslide to a moderate Democrat.
The race for the departing Stabenow’s seat will be a key one for another reason: The battle to keep or win control of the U.S. Senate, which now has a 51-49 Democratic edge. Democrats have to defend 20 seats; Republicans only 11.
Look for massive amounts to be spent in Michigan, especially if the GOP can find an attractive candidate. Should Elissa Slotkin win, don’t be surprised if talk of her possibly running for national office as soon as 2028 begins almost immediately.
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