DETROIT – Samuel Beckett’s famous play Waiting for Godot was first performed seven decades ago, and critics have been arguing over its meaning ever since. But in Michigan, the politicians, especially the Republicans, are waiting for Mike Rogers.
They are bound to get an answer sooner than those trying to figure out Godot — and that answer is likely to determine whether next year’s race for the U.S. Senate is hotly competitive, or a yawner.
That’s more important than usual, because Democrats now have a tiny, 51-49 edge in the Senate, counting independents who vote with the Democrats. More Democratic seats are at risk next year, and it’s almost impossible to see how Democrats can hold the Senate if they lose the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
When it comes to senate races in Michigan, to say Republicans are frustrated would be an understatement. Over the last half century, Republicans have held the governor’s office and controlled the legislature most of the time. But they have lost 15 out of 16 races for the U.S. Senate in the state, including every contest this century.
So far, even though there is a much-sought after open seat, the GOP’s chances next year haven’t looked good. When Stabenow announced in January that she wouldn’t seek a third term, Democrats rapidly coalesced around U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin as her successor.
Slotkin, 47, is a congresswoman and national security expert who has been elected three times from Republican-leaning districts and enjoys great personal popularity. She is also a phenomenal fund-raiser who piled up $5.8 million for her campaign in the first four months after she announced in February.
So far, the most prominent candidate the Republicans can come up with is Nikki Snyder, a registered nurse who is serving her first term on the state board of education. None of the six GOP congressmen seem interested, and if this is the field, the odds are pretty strong that Democrats will make it 16 out of 17.
But a few weeks ago, there were rumors Republicans might have a major league contender after all. Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who served in Congress from 2001 to 2015 and was chair of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, began sending signals that he might be interested in running for the Senate.
Rogers, who is 60, had an impressive background as a soldier and an FBI agent, then turned to politics and served two terms in the state senate before winning a seat in Congress by a mere 160 votes. He left voluntarily and hosted a radio show before starting a business as a national security consultant and moving to Florida.
The former congressman was likeable and seen as a strong fundraiser in his own right, plus someone who can potentially win Democratic and independent votes. When the voters in his district sent him to Washington, they also voted for Al Gore for president. Though the congressman was a fierce critic of President Obama on domestic issues, he also showed bipartisanship on security and intelligence issues, and on economic issues affecting Michigan.
But if Rogers does run, he would have to overcome two hurdles. He’d have to move back to Michigan, and do so fairly soon. Though some may call him a carpetbagger, that’s unlikely to be a major problem, given that he was born and lived most of his life here.
His other problem may be more serious when it comes to winning the GOP nomination. He has been critical of Donald Trump, calling his behavior “destructive” and arguing that his time is over.
He also won’t commit to supporting the former President if he is renominated. All that would probably help him in a general election but might doom him with vengeful Trump primary voters.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Elissa Slotkin’s march to what sometimes has seemed like a coronation for the Democratic nomination has been disturbed by the announcement that actor Hill Harper, star of TV’s CSI:NY and The Good Doctor, has also decided to try for the nomination.
Though he is an actor, the 57-year-old Harper does have a law degree from Harvard, as well as degrees from Brown and a master’s in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard.
And while he is not from Michigan, he did buy a historic mansion and a coffee shop in Detroit in 2017, saying “the greatest people in the world live here.”
Harper is believed to be planning to run to Slotkin’s left, as a more progressive candidate. He expects to raise significant money from Hollywood, and also has something else going for him: African-Americans are overwhelmingly Democratic, and many resent that the party has never nominated a Black candidate for governor or U.S. Senator. (Republicans have, but none have won.)
However, there probably aren’t enough Black voters to nominate Harper on their own. Bill Ballenger, a longtime observer of state politics, estimates that they’ll make up “20 to 25 percent (of the primary vote) possibly a third if they are really motivated.” But he also notes there are two other declared African American candidates, state school board president Pamela Pugh and a former legislator Leslie Love.
Plus, there’s already controversy about where Harper really lives. The online Daily Beast reported that he has two homes on the West Coast, and that despite a video in which the candidate claims to be raising his son in Michigan, the boy is actually in school in Seattle.
Michigan will, it seems, have an interesting senate race after all. But unless Republicans do attract a name contender, it may essentially be limited to the August primary.
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(A version of this column appeared in the Toledo Blade)
