LANSING, MI – Michigan Democrats began this year with something they haven’t had since Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was 12 years old: Majority control of all three branches of state government.
They’ve been using it, too, with almost blinding speed. Democratic majorities in the legislature are razor-thin; 20 to 18 in the senate 56-54 in the state house. Because of that, some thought Democrats might go slowly. They did nothing of the kind.
They moved with breathtaking speed to enact their agenda, with remarkable unity between city, suburban and rural members. They repealed many of the hated laws Republicans passed during the Snyder administration, including Right-to-Work.
They extended civil rights protections to gay and transgender citizens. They expanded the Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor and restored a law requiring union-scale wages be paid for state construction projects. Democrats also passed gun control legislation and further protected abortion rights.
Nor are they finished. Democrats have a lot more agenda items, including increasing government transparency, (Michigan has been one of the worst states in the country for openness) lowering prescription drug prices, and more.
But heads up: There’s a chance they could be about to lose the majority that made all this possible. The governor, re-elected by a landslide last year, isn’t going anywhere till January, 2027, and neither is the Democratic majority in the state senate.
However, every member of the Michigan House of Representatives is up for reelection in November 2024, and the Democrats could even lose their majority before that.
Two Detroit suburban members of their caucus, State Reps. Kevin Coleman of Westland and Lori Stone of Warren, are running for mayor in their home towns this November. Both finished second in their August primary election races. Should they win, they will have to resign from the legislature within days.
If both win, it would mean that there would suddenly be a 54-54 tie in the state house — at least until special elections are held to fill the two vacancies. How long would that take? In Michigan, governors set the dates of special elections when vacancies in both Congress and the legislature occur.
Politics can have a lot to do with the timing. When former U.S. Rep. John Conyers resigned in December 2017, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder delayed a special election to fill his seat for nearly a year. Whoever won was bound to be a Democrat, and Republicans had no interest in rushing to create another Democratic member of congress.
This time, both those legislative seats are also safe Democratic ones, and the governor would have a strong interest in filling them as quickly as possible. Even so, veteran legislative analyst Bill Ballenger said, it will take a minimum of 120 days to schedule both primary and general elections (and yes, this will cost taxpayers money.)
That wouldn’t be the first time both parties had an equal number of seats in the Michigan House of Representatives. Thirty years ago, Democrats and Republicans each wound up with 55 seats, and worked out a unique power-sharing agreement, under which the top Republican and Democratic leaders took turns being Speaker of the House, switching every month, and the parties took turns chairing the various committees.
Remarkably, the arrangement worked pretty well for two years, after which Republicans won control in the 1994 elections.
Could that happen again now? Ballenger, who has served in the house himself, says no.
That agreement back in the 1990s was a one-time thing, he said, and only applied to a house with no vacancies. “Under current house rules, a 54-54 tie would allow (Democrat) Joe Tate to remain Speaker and all the committee chairs to be Democrats.”
However, as long as Democrats didn’t have an actual majority, it would be that much harder for them to get bills passed for the four months or so before the former representatives could be replaced.
Since the legislators won’t want to meet for as long in an election year, and will want to adjourn early to campaign, losing two members could considerably slow down Democrats’ agenda.
However, this may never happen. Both members who are running for mayor finished second in their primary races, and unless both come from behind and win, Democrats will retain their majority.
But it will still be a fragile one, and it remains to be seen whether some members in marginal districts will be willing to support controversial bills in an election year.
Forty years ago, the last time Democrats had total control of state government, they lost it when two of their state senators were recalled for supporting a controversial income tax bill. Even though some of today’s lawmakers weren’t born then, they haven’t forgotten.
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