LANSING, MI – Last year was, without a doubt, one of huge triumphs for Michigan Democrats, who took full control of state government for the first time since 1983.
A year ago, pundits predicted the Democrats would move cautiously, since they had only the tiniest of legislative majorities (56-54 in the house; 20-18 in the state senate.) But they were dead wrong.
Democrats hung together amazingly well, and passed a stunning blizzard of legislation that included repealing right-to-work, expanding the state’s Elliott-Larsen civil rights act to protect transgender and gay citizens, and enacting a series of new gun safety laws, some of which may be tested in the courts.
So what’s likely to happen this year — an election year?
Democratic leaders, including Speaker of the House Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) have a lot more they want to accomplish. That includes making prescription drugs more affordable and enacting a generous paid family and medical leave law for nearly all workers.
But they aren’t likely to be able to do much before late April. Two Democratic members of the house were elected mayors of the cities of Warren and Westland in November, and resigned, leaving the house with a 54-54 tie. Their seats are seen as safe Democratic, but will be vacant until a special election April 16.
After that, Democrats should be fully back in business in Lansing. While some form of family leave and the creation of a Prescription Drug Accountability board are all but certain, there are some other proposals that are likely to be much more difficult.
Those include efforts to win higher levels of reimbursement for caregivers treating victims of motor vehicle accidents, and the thorny issue of how to hold police more accountable for brutality.
The latter is a top priority for the Michigan Black Legislative Caucus, but some Democrats worry lest they turn off some suburban voters, as the slogan “Defund the Police” did.
Beyond that, it is a national election year, and thanks to last year’s legislature, Michigan’s primary is Feb. 27, earlier then it’s been in recent cycles. Most of the focus will be on the Republican primary, where polls show Donald Trump with more support than all the other seven names on the ballot combined.
President Biden is expected to be the easy winner of the Democratic primary, but a stronger-than-expected showing by either self-help guru Marianne Williamson or Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips could be potentially embarrassing.
Whatever else happens and whoever the final candidates are, it’s clear that Michigan will get a lot of attention during the fall campaign. The Electoral College formula is clear: Democrats can probably not win without Michigan.
History does favor the Democrats; their presidential candidates have won Michigan in seven out of the last eight elections, with the only exception being Trump’s tiny 10,704 vote margin in 2016.
The state does seem to be getting more competitive, however; Biden’s margin of 154,000 last time was less than John Kerry or Al Gore won Michigan by, even as they lost nationally. And so far, polls have shown Biden struggling in the state, even though unemployment is low (4.1 percent) and inflation significantly down.
Besides the presidential race, there are a boatload of other significant Michigan contests, including the first open U.S. Senate race in a decade. U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but is facing a spirited challenge from actor Hill Harper and a couple of lesser-known candidates.
The Republicans have a competitive and crowded primary that includes two former congressmen, Peter Meijer and Mike Rogers, and former Detroit police chief James Craig.
Democrats have only lost one senate race in Michigan in the last half-century, but they have trouble on their hands in the House this year. Slotkin’s now-open district may well elect a Republican in her place, and the GOP could also pick up the Flint-area district now held by Democrat Dan Kildee, who is retiring after a cancer scare.
That would turn the current 7-6 Democratic advantage in Congressional seats to a 8-5 Republican one. Democrats do have an outside chance of knocking off freshman Macomb County congressman John James, who just barely scraped by in 2022.
They would probably have defeated him, had the national party been willing to spend money. But James seems more solidly positioned now, though the district will be competitive.
However, those races may not be the GOP’s main focus this year. That could be the state house, where Republicans have to flip just two seats to take control, and former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder is working hard to raise the funds to do that. Democrats were helped two years ago by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer winning a landslide at the top of the ticket. They can’t count on that this year.
Whatever does happen, this is going to be a huge year for lawmaking, politicking, and possibly even a winning sports team or two. And it’s only just begun.
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