WARREN, MI — Two years ago, the national Democratic Party threw away a seat in Congress they had held for decades, by refusing to listen to those who insisted that it was still hotly competitive.
This year, with control of the U.S. House of Representatives very much in doubt, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has clearly recognized that error, and is making a major multi-million dollar effort to win back the seat.
But do they have a chance?
Two years ago, despite local Democrats’ pleas, the national party refused to commit a cent to this race. They saw Republican John James, who had narrowly lost two statewide races for the U.S. Senate, as the certain winner.
Democrat Andy Levin, who had represented Michigan’s 10th district for two terms, felt redistricting had made it hopeless, and instead tried, and failed, to win nomination in another district. Macomb Democrats then chose Carl Marlinga, a longtime and generally popular county prosecutor and judge.
Republicans raised more than $7 million for James, an Army veteran who flew helicopters in Iraq. Marlinga raised barely a million, and was unable to afford television ads.
But on Election Night, both sides were stunned when the Democrat almost won. The final count was 159,202 for James, now Michigan’s only African-American representative in Congress, to 157,602 for Marlinga, who has lived nearly all his life in Macomb.
This year, national Democrats see things very differently “They have $5.7 million set aside for my race,” said Marlinga, after an enthusiastic morning rally at a major United Auto Workers hall in Warren, an aging major blue-collar city.
“They’ve already paid the (local TV stations) $1.7 million for a series of ads running the last two weeks,” of this month, he said, with more reserved for a bigger push as the Nov. 5 election nears.
Additionally, Marlinga said in an interview that he has already raised $3 million himself, three times what he raised in 2022. Alan Fosnacht, his campaign manager, predicts that will grow by at least another million. “We don’t have to match him,” the candidate said of his Republican opponent.
But can he give James, who through July had already raised or spent nearly $7 million, a serious battle? True, the Democrat is certain to have far more money this time. But incumbency usually is an advantage. Two years ago, James had never lived anywhere near the district, or even in Macomb County, where nearly all of it is.
That could have been a big issue in that county, which has been known to reject qualified candidates who voters felt hadn’t lived in Macomb long enough. Since then, however, James has moved to the district, and has been careful to avoid incendiary rhetoric, though he is an enthusiastic supporter of Donald Trump, who won the area by less than one percent in 2020.
However, eyes were raised this month when it was revealed that James, who had run a family-owned business, had failed to disclose 145 stock trades as required, and would have to pay a fine. While there was no hint of impropriety, few constituents live in a world where they trade on Wall Street.
If Marlinga’s biggest asset is his familiarity and experience, his biggest liability may be his age. If he wins, he would turn 78 his first week in office; John James is 43.
And while agreeing wryly that he is unlikely to serve for decades, Marlinga said “I think you can have an eight-year, ten-year career and make a real difference, and that’s my goal.” Should he win, while he would love to serve on the House Judiciary Committee, his top priority would be Science and Technology.
“You know if everybody went to hybrid technology for their cars, it would cut gas consumption by 50 percent,” he said, noting that he drives a Ford Escape hybrid. “That would force Big Oil to lower the price point to where gas becomes attractive again.” He also thinks we should follow the Europeans and aggressively promote heat pumps as a way of cutting the cost of both heating and cooling.
The district, most of which is in southern Macomb County, got national attention as the home of the famous “Reagan Democrats,” blue-collar workers who began voting Republican over social issues.
But those voters chose Barack Obama twice, and for 40 years elected first Sander Levin and then his son Andy to represent them in Congress before James won two years ago.
John James is still thought to have an edge here, but Democrats are convinced they can take it back. U.S. Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) the Democratic whip was in Detroit for a breakfast meeting, heard Marlinga was holding a rally in a union hall and risked missing her plane to come give a rousing speech for him.
With control of Congress completely up in the air, expect to see a lot of focus on this district in the weeks ahead.
(Editor’s Note: A version of this column also appeared in the Toledo Blade.)
