LANSING, MI – Joe Biden and Donald Trump, believe it or not, have one thing in common: Both started their presidencies with their party in effective control of both houses of Congress.
Each then lost the House of Representatives two years later. Now, the question is, will whoever wins the presidency next month have a Congress controlled by their party?
Republicans are thought to have an edge in the U.S. Senate, although Democratic chances are looking better in some doubtful seats. The House, however, is far harder to predict, since it is 435 unique and individual elections. The parties are nearly evenly divided, (Republicans currently have 220 seats, only two more than needed for a majority) and either could prevail.
And Michigan could well determine who wins control.
Currently, Democrats control seven of the state’s thirteen seats; Republicans, six. Many districts are safe for one party. Republican Tim Walberg, who represents Monroe, Lenawee and the entire strip of counties that border Ohio, should cruise to an easy win.
Democrat Debbie Dingell, whose Ann Arbor-based district includes a tiny bit of Monroe, is just as sure of reelection (There’s been a Dingell in that seat since 1932.)
But there are three seats, two now held by a Democrat and one by a Republican, that are up for grabs. I looked earlier (Sept. 19) at the Macomb County seat where Republican John James has a rematch with Democrat Carl Marlinga.
Two central Michigan districts have no incumbent, and are likely to be the focus of both parties’ efforts in the final weeks of the campaign. Both have been represented by Democrats, both narrowly voted for President Biden in 2020, and each could go either way.
Michigan’s Seventh District is centered on Democratic Lansing, the state capital, and includes four mainly GOP-leaning counties. Democratic Elissa Slotkin defeated a Republican incumbent in 2018, and then was reelected twice, two years ago beating Tom Barrett, who served in both the state house and senate.
This year, Slotkin is running for the U.S. Senate, and Barrett, 43, is trying again, this time against Democrat Curtis Hertel, 46, who represented some of the area in the state senate. Hertel is a famous political name in the Detroit area, but not so much in Lansing. Barrett has been endorsed by Trump, but prefers to define himself as a “working class conservative.”
Polls have shown the Republican ahead by six to seven points. “Hertel has a chance, but he doesn’t have the charisma Elissa Slotkin had, or the advantage women candidates often do,” said Ed Sarpolus, a longtime Michigan pollster and consultant whose Target-Insyght firm has done work for both parties.
Sarpolus is more bullish on Democratic chances in the other open seat, Michigan’s Eighth, which runs from Flint north to Bay City. The seat has been held by a Democrat named Kildee since 1976, first Dale, then his nephew Dan, in 2012.
Dan Kildee, who is 66, had a safe seat until the 2020 census, after which it was redistricted to be nearly even between the parties. Two years ago, he was challenged by Paul Junge, a millionaire and former broadcaster who had tried and failed to beat Slotkin in a neighboring district before.
The race last time was expected to be close, but Kildee won easily. Afterwards, however, he was diagnosed with cancer.
Surgery was successful, but late last year he announced that the experience made him examine his priorities, and he had decided not to run for reelection. Junge announced he would run again, and Democrats nominated Kristen McDonald Rivet, who was elected to the state senate two years ago.
Rivet, who is 54, has a background in educational and non-profit administration who is a former Bay City commissioner. (She is also the twin sister of Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald.) Rivet and her husband, another Bay City commissioner, have six children.
“Her husband’s family are well-known in the area, though ironically mostly for their pro-life stand,” ironic because the candidate is firmly pro-choice. Paul Junge, 58, has spent more on the race so far, “but he’s almost entirely self-financed.” Sarpolus said.
The fact that Republicans are not putting money into the race may indicate that they aren’t sold on his being able to win, he added.
In the end, the pollster said it will come down to which side does a better job of turning out their voters. Depending on how the doubtful three races turn out, either party could end up with an 8-5 or 7-6 edge in the state congressional delegation when the 119th Congress meets in January. Interestingly, one district that used to be a swing seat now isn’t. Republican Peter Meijer, of the Meijer grocery family, was elected to Congress from Grand Rapids in 2020.
But after he voted to impeach Donald Trump over January 6, angry Republicans defeated him in the 2022 primary, nominating instead extreme MAGA supporter John Gibbs, who then lost in a landslide to moderate Democrat Hillary Scholten, who Meijer had defeated before. This year, Republicans aren’t making much of an effort in the district. In much of Michigan, moderation still sells.
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(A version of this column appeared in the Toledo Blade)
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