DETROIT – Well, it’s Halloween, and we are just five days before what all sides agree will be both an extremely important national election, and also a crucial one in Michigan.
This day is always supposed to be at least a little spooky. I used to try to terrify trick-or-treaters by wearing a Nixon mask, until I realized that almost nobody knows who that is anymore.
So instead, let me start by sketching out what a Halloween nightmare election scenario would look like for both parties:
Democratic Nightmare: Donald Trump carries the state, if only narrowly, with help from an increased share of the Black and Middle Eastern immigrant vote. Mike Rogers becomes only the first Republican since 1994 to win a seat in the U.S. Senate. Republicans also gain two seats in Congress by winning the ones formerly held by Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin, and in a final triumph, gain the two seats they need to control the Michigan House of Representatives. That would give them the ability to block any or all of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s initiatives in her last two years in office.
Republican Nightmare: Michigan, which has only voted GOP for president once since 1988, continues its usual pattern and gives Kamala Harris a surprisingly easy win, buoyed by a larger-than-expected turnout of women. Elissa Slotkin is elected to the U.S. Senate, the 16th time the Democrats have won in the last 17 senate elections in Michigan. Meanwhile, Democrats gain a seat in Congress, defeating first-termer John James in Macomb County, and actually expand their margin in the state house of representatives.
That sums up what would be each party’s post-election nightmare. But which is more likely to come true?
Almost certainly, neither scenario will play out as described. There are reasons to think that overall, Democrats may have an edge. Historical patterns are often more useful than polls, and with the exception of Trump’s razor-thin victory in 2016, Michigan has been a Democratic state in presidential elections for 36 years.
Slotkin should have an edge too, although Rogers is both a strong candidate and, in the last stages of the race, has become a well-funded one. Her strong bipartisan national security background may make her acceptable to voters who would be turned off by more left-wing or “progressive” Democrats, and Rogers having lived in Florida in recent years hasn’t helped him.
But Democrats aren’t likely to do as well in congressional contests. Republican Tom Barrett seems to be ahead of Democrat Curtis Hertel in the race for Slotkin’s seat, a district which has slightly more Republicans than Democrats.
Democrat Kristin Rivet seems more likely to hold on to the open Flint-area seat, though both races are clearly too close to call. First term congressman James probably is a slight favorite to win his rematch with former Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga, though unlike two years ago, Democrats are pouring money into this race. If those patterns hold, Republicans would end up gaining one seat in Michigan’s congressional delegation, though any of these races could easily go the other way.
As for the state house, where Democrats now have a 56-54 edge, indications are that they may continue or even expand their majority. Control remains doubtful, but Democrats have had a huge edge in fundraising from the start, thanks to the fact that the state GOP began the year with financial chaos and a nasty leadership struggle.
Democrats also tend to benefit when turnout is larger, as it always is in a general election. However, there may never have been a year in which so many races were so close across the entire ballot.
That means citizens are better positioned than ever this year to play the biggest tricks and bestow the biggest treats on all politicians. All they have to do is take one simple step, one that more than a million Michiganders have already taken in this election:
They just have to vote.
Dirty Tricks Footnote: Though Michigan politics have been relatively clean in recent years, each major party has done at least one cringe-worthy thing so far. Democrats control most offices in large and rich Oakland County, but have utterly failed to unseat popular Republican Sheriff Mike Bouchard. This year, they nominated a candidate named Amrit Kohli, an aspiring folk singer without any law enforcement experience who says he won’t serve if he wins.
If that isn’t an insult to the voters, I don’t know what is. Meanwhile, Tom Barrett, a Republican candidate for Congress, placed an ad in an African-American newspaper urging Blacks to vote for him on November 6. He is thought to have little Black support, and the election is actually Nov. 5, the day before that.
Was he trying to trick African-Americans into not voting? A spokesman for the Barrett campaign said it was a mere “proofreading error.” But the campaign ran a similar ad with the correct date in another, non-minority paper.
The Michigan Attorney General’s office has issued him a reprimand, and some African-American lawmakers are threatening a lawsuit for attempted voter suppression.
Happy Halloween!
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