DETROIT – Once upon a time, stores weren’t packed with Christmas decorations until after Thanksgiving, or at least Halloween, and politicians didn’t start campaigning for the next election until at least a year after the last one was over.
Well, those days are long gone. The presidential election was only a month ago today, and it will be weeks before the newly elected take office. But in Michigan, the political class is already focusing on what are certain to be momentous midterm elections in 2026.
That’s because all the state’s top officials — the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general — are not only term-limited, they have to leave those jobs for the rest of their lives.
For the first time in history, all of Michigan’s top officeholders are women and Democrats, and big questions are being asked about both who will replace them, and what will Gretchen Whitmer, Jocelyn Benson, and Dana Nessel, all still relatively young, do next?
Before anyone can even begin to answer any of those questions, it’s worth noting that the voters will be facing two strong and contradictory trends. First, for decades, Michigan has regularly alternated governors of each major party every eight years. Democrat Jim Blanchard was elected in 1982, and in 1990 was ousted by John Engler, who served three terms, something now outlawed.
Engler, a Republican, was succeeded by Democrat Jennifer Granholm, who served two terms. She was followed by Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.
That would seem to indicate Republicans should prevail next time — except for the other trend. Normally, the party that wins the White House suffers major losses, nationally and in Michigan, in the next midterm election. Both parties know this, and it’s safe to say Democrats feel much more confident about 2026 than they would have had Kamala Harris won the presidential election.
Plus, while it’s still early, Democrats also seem to have a stronger bench of potential candidates. In fact, the battle for their gubernatorial nomination may feature a “battle of the titans,” between Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, each of whom has broad statewide appeal.
Neither has yet said they are running for governor, but it is no secret that both are ambitious. Benson, who is 47, once ran the Boston Marathon while she was eight months pregnant, and at 36, was the youngest woman ever to become dean of a major law school, that of Wayne State University in Detroit.
Mike Duggan, now 66, is well-known and widely regarded statewide as the “mayor who saved Detroit,” or at least presided over vast improvements in the Motor City. After spending decades in Wayne County government and a stint as prosecutor, he managed to save the financially troubled Detroit Medical Center, which was later privatized. He then accomplished the stupendous political feat of winning the Detroit mayoral primary in 2013 on a write-in vote.
He went on to easily win three terms, but last month said he would not run for reelection next year, fueling speculation he was gearing up for a run for governor. Garlin Gilchrist, 42, a native Detroiter the current lieutenant governor, has also hinted that he might run; in a three-way race, he might draw some African-American votes away from Duggan.
Who Republicans may run for governor is less clear. Last time, they nominated Tudor Dixon, a political novice endorsed by Trump who then lost badly to Gretchen Whitmer. Former Speaker of the Michigan House Tom Leonard, who narrowly lost a race for Michigan Attorney General in 2018, might be a strong candidate. Two businessmen, Perry Johnson and Kevin Rinke, failed to get the nomination in 2022, but are believed to be considering another run.
Then there is U.S. Rep. John James, one of the GOP’s few Black elected officials, who lost two races for the U.S. Senate before winning a seat in the House in 2022, and being re-elected this year.
Speculating on who either party might nominate for Secretary of State or Attorney General is meaningless, because the voters have no say in the process. The candidates are chosen by delegates to state conventions around Labor Day in election years, after the primary, and normally have to be approved by the nominee for governor.
Michigan’s other marquee race in 2026 will involve U.S. Sen. Gary Peters’ bid for a third term. Peters defeated John James in a squeaker in 2020, but there’s little sign that the congressman is interested in a rematch. Not only is the senator generally respected, Michigan Republicans have a stunning record of futility in U.S. Senate races, winning only once since 1972, and never in this century.
Naturally, the political landscape may look very different even a year from now, and both parties will also be battling over the state legislature; Democrats hold the senate, Republicans just took back the House, and every seat will be on the ballot next time.
But next time has already started. I don’t know how early stores will be selling Easter merchandise this year (the holiday is April 20) but I’d bet we’ll all get appeals from politicians begging for campaign donations before then.
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( version of this column appeared in the Toledo Blade)
